经济学的 expansive fiscal policy

讲师：王东

"Assume a developed market (DM) country has an expansive fiscal policy under high capital mobility conditions. Why is its currency most likely to depreciate in the long-run under an integrated Mundell- Fleming and portfolio-balance approach?”" 答案说"Expansionary fiscal policies result in currency depreciation in the long run. " 本人理解：在flexible和high capital mobility conditions下， expansive fiscal policy不是导致利率上升，资本流出，导致货币升值吗？ financial account升值，current account贬值，综合来看还是升值？难道是短期升值，长期又贬值了？谢谢

答：在flexible和high mobility的情况下，扩张性财政政策会有两种相反的影响：
1. 政府借款；利率上升；资本流入；本币升值 （资本账户影响）
2. 促进经济；对进口商品需求增加；外币需求增加而升值，即本币贬值。（经常账户影响）

由于第一种情况占主导，所以最终还是会导致本币升值（短期）。
注意：Mundell-Fleming approach focuses on the short-term implications of fiscal policy
portfolio balance model focuses on the long-term implications of sustained fiscal policy

这是重要考点，由于Mundell Fleming model关注的是短期，短期升值；根据portfolio balance，投资者担心本国无法偿债，所以本币长期会贬值。